Moscow, Sep 19 (EFE).- Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to suppress all rebels in the post-Soviet space, where Armenians and Azerbaijanis, Qurgis and Tajiks are involved in violent border war escalations that the West can take advantage to blow up the war of attrition between Russia and Ukraine.
In recent days, Putin has held intense talks with the leaders of two countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia to urge them to avoid a military escalation that would undermine or advance the Russian campaign in Ukraine.
The fighting left more than 200 dead on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan, and a hundred on the border between Quirguistão and Tadjiquistão.
The Armenians and Surgeons are close Russian allies, but Moscow also has a non-Tajik military base, which shares more than 1,300 kilometers of border with Afghanistan, and non-Azerbaijani energy interests near Mar Cáspio.
RUSSIA AS AN OCCUPIED MINE.
The Russian reaction shows that the last thing the Kremlin wants is an armed conflict in its quintal, forcing it to intervene as a fez with the violent uprising that broke out in Cazaquistão during the last month of January.
On the contrary, the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) ignored the Armenian call to ask for help or to squabble over the “aggression” of Azerbaijan.
As long as the 2020 conflict does not control the Nagorno-Karabakh region, the CSTO regrets that the hostilities did not take place only in Armenia, now it cannot resort to this argument, unless the objective does not not to divert the necessary resources to Ukraine.
The cards are turned over. A “special military operation” in Ukraine is keeping Russia as busy as possible. The Russian army, for example, did not intervene in Ukraine to conclude its mission in Syria, where it prevented the overthrow of Bashar al Assad.
In fact, the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, accepted or was invited to participate in the sixth fair organized in Uzbekistan by the leadership of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, but the Prime Minister of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, has refused.
To improve the situation, Putin met in Samarkand not only Aliyev, but also Baku’s main ally, or Turkish leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
TURKEY AND IRAN, AN IMPOSSIBLE BALANCE.
Analysts believe that what is happening in the post-Soviet space does not respond exclusively to the wishes of the Kremlin, but also to the interests of other regional actors, notably Turkey.
Logically, Putin would have yielded to the pretensions of Erdogan in Armenia, very interested in the construction of a land corridor between Turkey and Azerbaijan, or which could balance or balance the forces in the Caucasus.
Turkey shares barely ten kilometers of border with the Azerbaijani Autonomous Republic of Nakhitchevan, which is separated from the rest of the country by a few tens of kilometers of Armenian territory.
To trace this corridor, Turkey wants to receive the backing of Iran, a country with which it disputes regional hegemony and which has made it clear that it opposes this project.
Either it will share 44 kilometers of border with Armenia, with which we have good relations, largely thanks to the large Azeri minority who live in the explosive north of the Islamic Republic.
Russia was even willing to host a meeting in Moscow between Erdogan and Assad, who has always accused Ancara of threatening Syrian territorial integrity.
Since I did not marry two Armenians, in this case we would be Kurds and their desire for independence in the north of the Arab country.
Além disso, or Irã maintains close relations with Tadjiquistão, with which we have historical and cultural ties.
We faced you two almost thousand kilometers from the Quirguistão-Tadjiquistão border, two almost less than the objective of remaining undemarcated, forcing the evacuation of more than 140,000 Quirguizes, the longest in the history of this border country with China.
IN THE SHADE OF TAIWAN.
While Putin was trying to calm the mood in the region, or more explosively, two guests invited to the Caucasus powder keg: Nancy Pelosi, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives.
While the visit had been long planned, its arrival on Saturday coincided with rising tensions in the region, tearing Moscow away from its recent trip to Taiwan, which sparked international rows with China.
If the Kremlin tried to launch hot papers, Pelosi openly condemned “Azerbaijan’s deadly attacks on Armenian territory.”
The Armenian government appreciated the “clear” US position on the conflict, while Azerbaijan called Pelosi’s statements “unfair” and “unacceptable”.
In a similar vein, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Sunday called on Aliyev to seek a permanent ceasefire with Armenia, which included withdrawing troops from the border.
The United States, which will by now have all of its military bases in Central Asia due to pressure from Russia and China, is trying to take advantage of any sign of weakness to return to the area after its disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan.
The green line for the supply of long-range heavy weapons to Ukraine would lead to another dangerous scenario, due to the interference of two US dollars, not a Russian quintal.
Either Azerbaijan is still swimming between two waters, but, after recent setbacks, Armenia can reconsider its foreign policy and reduce its almost total dependence vis-à-vis the Kremlin. EFE